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Empirical Testing In the Forward Market. This paper discusses the empirical evidence on efficiency of forward rates in the foreign exchange market. There is a strong justification for this ongoing discord. For, policy makers in their various capacities must assess the performance of several alternative international financial systems. The crux of the confusion can be witnessed in the tough debate on fixed vs. flexible exchange rates. Moreover, it is for this reason that most governments have chosen hybrid exchange rates. From this it follows that, because the actions of government policy makers are often anyone's guess, the prediction of forward rates must be an inherently unpredictable issue. This paper moves to look further into the issue and highlight the available research conducted on empirical testing on the forward rate. In the final analysis, it is revealed that in an efficient market, forward rates are not necessarily unbiased predictors of forward rates. (Though it must be noted that, since conditional covariance can vary through time, it follows that the nature of the bias in the forward rate can also be time varying.) The paper will begin with a brief look at the capricious character of the foreign exchange market. 21 pgs. 52 f/c. 12b.
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